Egypt Institute Journal (Vol. 3 – Issue 11) / studies

Future Tracks of Political Transformations in the Middle East

July 2018

Dr.. Essam Abdel Shafi
Professor of International Relations, Turkish University of Sakarya, he worked as a visiting professor at universities: Alexandria, Damanhur, 6th of October, Beirut Arab, Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science, Cairo University (2009).


The study addresses the most important likely tracks of political transformations  ranging from hope to frustration, with focus on the controls, interests, directions, strategies, capabilities and real wills that govern the international interactions, not absurd delusions and wishes.

The study reviews four basic scenarios in which the region can move during the next seven years (2018-2025):

– The first scenario: achieving an Arab boom and victory of the popular revolutions,

– The second scenario: chaos and collapse,

– The third scenario: dismantling and restructuring, and

– The fourth scenario: what is more dangerous than division.

The study then addresses a number of proposals on how to deal with these scenarios and develop preliminary alternatives to manage the current challenges.

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